The central challenge confronting Nigeria’s ambition to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030 lies not in generating growth, but in ensuring that prosperity is inclusively distributed. Past expansion has often produced jobless and unequal outcomes, revealing weak links between output gains and citizens’ welfare. This paper addresses this gap by examining how Nigeria’s economic transformation can balance scale with fairness in wealth distribution. Guided by the Systems Thinking and Institutional Theory, the study adopts a conceptual–analytical approach to develop a conceptual framework connecting productive transformation, institutional quality, and distributive mechanisms. The framework positions institutional quality as a moderator and distributive mechanisms as a mediator between transformation and inclusive wealth outcomes. It explains how clear policies, transparent fiscal systems, and fair value-creation processes work together to turn economic growth into real social inclusion. The paper concludes that Nigeria’s $1 trillion goal will only lead to lasting, people-centred development if its productive, institutional, and fiscal systems function in harmony.

Keywords: Inclusive growth, wealth distribution, institutional quality, systems thinking, Nigeria $1 trillion economy